Bitcoin rose more than 2% to $63,770 after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah helped ease market concerns and pushed oil prices down 8% for the week.
Bitcoin climbed 2.4% to a high of $63,770 on June 20 before easing slightly to around $63,600. This followed a 7% drop from a high of nearly $67,200 on June 15 to a low of around $62,300 on June 18, a decline that coincided with outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), geopolitical instability, and investors fleeing riskier assets.
Renewed optimism emerged after reports that Israel and Hezbollah had reached a ceasefire agreement scheduled to begin on Friday. Reuters quoted a U.S. official confirming the agreement, while Iranian officials indicated their willingness to resume negotiations with Washington if the terms of the agreement were respected.
These developments eased immediate fears of a wider regional conflict and helped push crude oil prices down 8% for the week, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate trading near multi-week lows.
Safe assets like gold and silver declined as investors shifted their capital to riskier assets. Gold fell 1.6% over the past 24 hours, while silver dropped nearly 2%, as Bitcoin recovered from its weekly lows.
Both call options and short covering are contributing to the rebound
Derivatives traders have turned a technical pullback into a rally. The expiration of a large number of options contracts may be a contributing factor. Bitcoin options worth approximately $10.6 billion are set to expire on June 26, and market participants are closely monitoring this event after reports indicated that a significant portion of open positions are above current prices.
The rally also forced short sellers to reduce their positions after Bitcoin briefly entered oversold territory following the sell-off on June 18. These conditions often trigger short covering, where traders repurchase borrowed assets to close their short positions, further increasing upward pressure on Bitcoin's price.
CoinGlass liquidation data shows that one of the largest near-close liquidation clusters is located in the $64,000-$65,000 range, just above current prices.
The Bitcoin liquidation heat map shows heavy leverage clusters around $64,000-$66,000 and $61,800-$62,000, highlighting key areas that could trigger volatility.
Additional liquidity pockets appear near $66,000, suggesting that a sustained rally could lead to another round of forced short liquidations and accelerate volatility.
Institutional flows remain mixed. SoSoValue data shows that US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $226 million this week, reinforcing the broader pullback trend that has persisted since mid-May. While these outflows still pose a challenge, the pace of selling has slowed compared to the panic seen in previous weeks.
A break above $64,700 could open the way to $80,000
The technical picture has improved significantly on both the daily and four-hour timeframes.
On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is trading within a symmetrical triangle formed by a descending resistance line from the June 15 high and an ascending support line extending from the June 5 low. The price has declined towards the top of this pattern, which often precedes a major price move.
Bitcoin is forming a symmetrical triangle on the four-hour chart, with the price falling below the $64,760 resistance level as bulls attempt a breakout towards higher Fibonacci targets.
The key breakout level is near $64,760. A decisive move above this level would put Bitcoin above both the triangle resistance and the major Fibonacci retracement level. The forecast suggests that the target of the measured move within this pattern is the $79,000-$80,000 area, which also coincides with the resistance level near the upper Fibonacci extension shown on the chart.
Daily momentum indicators have begun to improve. The MACD has posted consecutive upward readings after a prolonged decline, while the RSI has recovered from oversold conditions and climbed back above 38. The Chaikin Money Flow Index remains slightly negative but has started to turn upward, indicating a decrease in selling pressure compared to the beginning of the month.
Bitcoin is trading near $63,800 after rebounding from its June lows, with the RSI recovering from oversold levels and resistance near the Fibonacci retracement level at $64,700.
The bullish outlook will weaken if Bitcoin loses the ascending support of the triangle and falls below $62,000.
CoinGlass heatmap data shows a significant concentration of liquidity around the $61,800-$62,000 level, making this a key area for traders. A price drop below this level could lead to a fall to the June lows near $59,200, potentially shifting the market's direction in favor of sellers.
In addition to the charts, traders continue to monitor US-Iranian negotiations, Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, and ETF flows. Any renewed escalation in the Middle East, a rebound in oil prices, or another wave of institutional selling could limit Bitcoin's recovery and delay its attempt to break out.