Analysts at Societe Generale point to a relative lull in economic data ahead of the release of key US jobs figures. Market expectations are for 40,000 jobs, compared to the anticipated 60,000, while Societe Generale forecasts 75,000. Recent ISM manufacturing data, coupled with a 0.5% month-over-month increase in retail sales, supports optimism regarding US GDP for the first quarter, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecasting growth of around 2%.

 

Payrolls, Inflation Signals, and Growth Tracking

"Today's data schedule is quiet. US jobs data is due tomorrow: forecasts predict a drop to 40,000 from the consensus forecast of 60,000. The Singapore Economic Council expects 75,000."

"Yesterday's macroeconomic data slightly exceeded the manufacturing PMI (52.7 for March), but the real story is the surge in prices paid, which jumped nearly 8 points to 78.3, the highest level since June 2022 or in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion."

"This will be factored into the Fed's tariff narrative, but the energy sector adds another layer of price pressure."

"Separately, the 0.5% month-over-month increase in controlled retail sales in February will bolster optimism about first-quarter GDP. The Atlanta Fed is currently forecasting growth of around 2%."