Bitcoin is trading near $60,000 after a volatile week that pushed the largest cryptocurrency to its lowest level since late 2024.

The price remained stable throughout the weekend, even as renewed tensions in the Middle East tested risk appetite in global markets.

Bitcoin opened strongly last week, rising to around $65,500 after recovering support near $64,000. However, this rally proved short-lived. Sellers then pushed the currency below $62,400, then to around $59,000, before Bitcoin's price plummeted again to around $58,000.

Bitcoin's price stabilized after a sharp sell-off last week

Bitcoin's recent price action suggests the market is attempting to maintain a support level after a rapid decline. Bitcoin is currently trading around $60,000, with bulls defending this level after repeated tests below it.

The calm at the end of the week is highlighted by the exchange of accusations between the US and Iran regarding the collapse of the ceasefire. Earlier this month, Bitcoin's price surged above $65,500 after a US-Iran agreement eased concerns about oil and inflation in the markets.

This euphoric rally was short-lived. Bitcoin quickly lost momentum as traders returned to concerns about liquidity, ETF flows, and the risks associated with trading strategies.

The current situation keeps Bitcoin's price confined between two short-term levels. A drop below $58,000 could trigger further selling, while a clear recovery above $64,000 to $66,000 could signal buyers regaining control.

 

Concerns surrounding Strategy Inc. continue to weigh on the market

Strategy Inc., formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains a major point of contention. Growing concerns about its capital structure have impacted investor sentiment toward Bitcoin, given that it is still the largest Bitcoin holder.

As previously reported, Bitcoin's price fell below $60,000 for the second time in June, with liquidations exceeding $850 million. Strategy Inc.'s stock also experienced a sharp decline as traders awaited the performance of the company's shares, its preferred stock, and the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Another report indicated that Strategy Inc.'s Bitcoin-based business model is beginning to unravel. Previously, the company used a stock premium to raise capital and purchase more Bitcoin, but the current market downturn makes this model unsustainable.

CryptoQuant has urged Strategy Inc. to suspend its Bitcoin purchases and rebuild its cash reserves. The company said that coverage of the dividends associated with STRC has fallen to about 14 months as cash reserves dwindle.

This pressure doesn't necessarily mean that Strategies will sell Bitcoin now. However, the market is watching to see if further pressure on STRC or MSTR will lead to more concerns about Bitcoin.

 

Analysts are divided on the likelihood of a breakout or a deeper decline

A cryptocurrency analyst at MarketWatcher said Bitcoin's weekly structure remains clear. He noted a downward trend from the July and August highs near $70,000 and $67,000, and said a break below this level would make investors more willing to put their capital into action.

The analyst described the current range as "indecisive summer fluctuations" between approximately $59,000 and $66,000. This range aligns with the current market, where Bitcoin's price hasn't completely collapsed, but it has also failed to regain lost momentum.

MarketWatcher indicated that a break below the main trendline near $58,000 would change the situation. The analyst also compared the current downtrend to the breakout in December 2022 and January 2023, which subsequently triggered a strong Bitcoin rally.

EGRAG CRYPTO took a broader perspective, focusing on Bitcoin's 12-month cycle. The analyst explained that the typical pattern is three years of gains followed by one year of losses, but this cycle could change if 2026 ends with an annual decline.

EGRAG confirmed that the four-year cycle remains in place, but added that fundamentals are more important than optimism. This view keeps the focus on the year-end close and whether Bitcoin can establish a stronger long-term trend.

 

Blockchain data suggests a possible reset

CryptoQuant analyst CrazyBlock said that short-term Bitcoin dominance has dropped to 27.6%. He added that this puts Bitcoin in historically low territory, where long-term Bitcoin holders control most of the realized capital.

In previous cycles, market peaks formed when short-term investors held most of the realized capital. This often manifested as heavy speculation and late-cycle buying.

Short-term Bitcoin holders have achieved dominance. Source: CryptoQuant analyst, CrazyBlock.

Bear markets have shown the opposite scenario. Short-term investors suffer losses, their share of realized capital declines, and long-term investors regain control.

The analyst said that current data looks more like previous accumulation phases than cycle peaks. However, he also cautioned that bottoms are often formed through a process, and another capitulation phase is still possible.

Facundo Fama, another analyst at CryptoQuant, pointed to the SOPR coin held by long-term investors. He explained that when the LTH-SOPR price approaches or falls below 1, long-term investors sell the coin at a loss or close to it.

The last time the LTH-SOPR index fell below 1 on a monthly timeframe of more than three months was in October 2022, when Bitcoin was trading near $20,000. This data doesn't guarantee a bottom has been reached, but it does indicate that long-term Bitcoin holders' selling pressure has returned to a rare level.

 

Bitcoin Price Forecast

Bitcoin’s near-term future hinges on buyers’ ability to hold the $58,000 level and reclaim the $64,000-$66,000 price range. A close above this upper range could support a stronger recovery attempt.

A drop below $58,000 would weaken the current base and could expose lower levels as traders reduce risk. In this scenario, Bitcoin’s price might retreat to deeper support levels before a new price range forms.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is not experiencing a sharp decline, nor is a strong reversal confirmed. The market remains quiet near the $60,000 level, but this quietness depends on the support level holding, risks in the Middle East remaining under control, and strategic concerns subsiding.